The rationale for this request is simple:  If Canada does not know 'where it is' and 'where it's going' in regards to renewables, we can be reasonably assured of failing to achieve our non-goal.

An example of concerning statistics:  The North American Energy Working Group quotes NRCan that generation from non-hydro renewables will drop to 2 TWh in 2010, from 6 TWh in 2000.  See the data under 'Electricity Generation - Renewable other'.

Some points for your consideration and/or inclusion in your letter:

• there are no reliable data for off-grid electric or stand-alone space conditioning technologies
• all data must be public and publicly available
• all forecasts must be reviewed periodically and state all assumptions
• industry must be involved / consulted in the compilation of data
• other governments and other agencies should be involved in data collection / forecasts
• without official public data, anyone can use whatever figures they want
• reliable data will be needed for emission trading schemes, etc
• data should be consistent with the data compiled on conventional energy sources
• many other industrialized countries collect data on renewables

We are asking only for the what (an analysis) and the when (asap); we are not suggesting the how (methodology) nor the who (mechanism) to achieve this goal; your suggestions on these points will help NRCan to develop the best process. c.a.r.e. is prohibited from accepting NRCan funding.

c.a.r.e. would appreciate your endorsement directly to Minister Dhaliwal at his NRCan address (below); phone (613) 996-2007, fax 996-4516, or email hDhaliwa@NRCan.gc.ca.

July 2, 2002

Hon. Herb Dhaliwal, Minister
Natural Resources Canada
580 Booth, 21st Floor
Ottawa   K1A 0E4

The canadian association for renewable energies requests that your department undertake an immediate and comprehensive analysis of the capacity and potential of renewable energies in Canada.

As Canada attempts to curtail our GHG emissions and to diversify and secure our energy supplies, renewables must be considered a pre-eminent option. However, the estimate for installed ‘green’ generating capacity is not solid, and there is no estimate for non-marketed power and space conditioning capacity in this country.

The U.S. Department of Energy attempts to quantify the status of renewables in its EIA ‘Issues & Trends’ report. It dis-aggregates data by region and by sector for ten distinct technologies, and supplements environmental analyses and forecasts with data such as technology-specific costs, shipments and exports by destination. In 1999, c.a.r.e. noted that U.S. consumption of renewables by electric utilities was 3.9 quadrillion Btu, but DOE was ignoring 3.2 quads of renewables from stand-alone units. With one small ‘accounting’ change, DOE almost doubled the national share of renewable energies.

Without comparable data from our government, it is impossible to benchmark or track the generation by wind, solar PV, hydroelectric, tidal, ocean or geothermal, or the space conditioning contribution from earth energy, solar thermal or biomass. NRCan data released by the North American Energy Working Group show that you expect generation from non-hydro renewables to drop by two-thirds this decade, and such projections become self-fulfilling prophecies in the absence of consolidated data which benefit from input from the domestic industry and are subject to periodic review.

The contribution from renewables to the electric grid is reasonably quantifiable, but there is no estimate of off-grid applications and no forecasts for green power or space conditioning, the latter of which could be a significant domestic energy component. The absence of both components virtually eliminates any chance that they would be considered by government for inclusion in emission credits or similar schemes.

In the absence of ‘official’ data, interest groups are forced to calculate their own (potentially conflicting) estimates on the current status and future potential of renewable energy technologies.

In light of NRCan’s increasing support for renewables, we submit that the lack of data is a glaring deficiency in the requisite efforts to understand and advance renewable energy technologies.  To address this deficiency, we request that:
 

Much of this research already exists within NAEWG, Energy Technology Futures, the Ontario Select Committee and many other sources. However, data are not dynamic, sophisticated, consistent, consolidated nor readily accessible, and have never received NRCan’s ‘official’ stamp of approval.

This analysis will be a significant undertaking, but we are convinced that the domestic industry will support the initiative. The canadian association for renewable energies pledges its total support, and we will encourage other groups to similarly endorse a timely launch of this important initiative.

We trust that you will consider this request as a priority for your officials, and stand by to assist in any way we can.

     Bill Eggertson, CAE, Executive Director
     eggertson@renewables.ca